CSMB

Welcome to 6th ICMB

Short Course

    The short course registration is closed. All the enrollees will receive an email by April 25, please be kind to reply in time.    

 

  The short course will be held on June 22 (the first day of the conference). Space for the short course is limited and will be on a first come, first served basis. Interested participants are encouraged to enroll for the short course as early as possible by April 15, and register on June 21. Enrollees will receive an Email before April 25, and other participants can attend only if seats are available on the day of the course.

              

Organizers

John Glasser (Chair, US CDC)

Jorge Alfaro-Murillo (Yale University)

Fuqiang Cui (Peking University)

Zhilan Feng (Purdue University)

Lance Rodewald (WHO)

             

Introduction

  The short-course has been devised based on our contributions to the Epidemic Intelligence Service curriculum, a two-year fellowship in applied epidemiology at the CDC. We will begin by reviewing the history of transmission modeling and describe one or more situations in which conventional field studies would have been too slow or costly if ethical. We will contrast mechanistic and descriptive modeling and emphasize the utility of mechanistic population models in guiding research programs, designing, evaluating and occasionally improving public health policy, and communicating counter-intuitive results. Subsequently, we will describe one means of modeling the transmission of pathogens among the members of homogeneous host populations, including the requisite methodology, and reinforce these ideas via hands-on practical exercises. Alternative modeling approaches will be presented during the conference. In our presentations, we will emphasize that mechanistic models are hypotheses, so should be as simple as possible (to facilitate evaluation), but not more so (as simplistic models may be misleading), the strategy of model building in population biology, the basic science underlying mathematical epidemiology, and factors affecting the dynamics and control of infectious diseases. During the afternoon, we will extend this approach to populations with age, gender, or spatial structure. We will describe meta-population models whose sub-population members may mix non-randomly and C via additional practical exercises C their use to target public health interventions.  

              

Topics

Introduction

Lance Rodewald and John Glasser

              

Classic transmission models and analytical results

LecturerJorge Alfaro-Murillo

              

Reducing PDEs with arbitrary sojourns to ODEs

LecturerZhilan Feng

             

Practical I C homogeneous host populations

LecturerJohn Glasser

 

Simulation methods C finite-difference, event/time methods

LecturerJohn Glasser

 

Meta-population modeling and mixing

LecturerJohn Glasser

 

Reproduction numbers C underlying processes

LecturerZhilan Feng

 

Practical II C heterogeneous host populations

LecturerJohn Glasser

 

Estimation of unknown or uncertain parameters

LecturerJorge Alfaro-Murillo 

 

Targeting C left eigenvector and the gradient approach

LecturerZhilan Feng

 

Wrap-up

LecturerAll instructors  

 

 

Morning:

3-4 lectures (2 hours including break) and practical I (1.5-2 hours)

Afternoon:

3-4 lectures (2 hours including break) and practical II  (1.5-2 hours)